Warm Whiskers
13 Jul 2010
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Warm Whiskers
Scandal or not - the Debate over Climate Change Data
The alleged editing of the climate warming data at the University of East Anglia in the UK is another episode in the continuing saga of academic dishonesty that has beset scientific research so publicly in the last decade.
There have been instances of massaged clinical trials of drugs, invention of data and false reporting in the measles-mumps-rubella (“MMR”) vaccine scandal (which led to the striking-off of a medical doctor/researcher) plus other examples of scientific fraud.
It is by not a new feature of scientific research – cases go back many years. Piltdown Man was a notorious example of scientific fraud. This case originated in 1912 and was finally recognised as a forgery in 1953. A skull reportedly discovered in 1912 in a gravel pit was at the time said to be evidential of the so-called ‘missing link’ between Man and Apes. Although some people built reputations and careers based on the discovery, there was probably little practical harm done by the forgery.
In the MMR scandal, children may have suffered as a result of not being appropriately vaccinated because of the evidence presented by the researcher. It caused a lot of worry for many parents. They avoided the triple vaccine for their children because of the alleged link with autism.
At present, on an international scale, we have the potential for a similar scandal. More than 170 nations are represented at the International Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. A bandwagon is in motion and entrenched business, scientific, political and eco-warrior interests are in play, almost on a planetary scale.
Arguably, the case for man-made global warming is not yet proven. Certainly, there is significant evidence to suggest that industrial and societal emissions are contributing to global warming, but the significance of that contribution is, I contend, still open to question.
The specific scientific data under challenge relates to atmospheric temperature records. Very recently – in the last couple of weeks, we have heard that the last decade has been the warmest since records began 150 years ago. Well, current understanding is that the earth is some 4.5 billion years old, so 150 years is not even a gnat’s whisker on that scale. The climate may well be warming, and there may be significant dangers to countries and to human population in countries such as Bangladesh and the Maldive Islands, and even the East Coast of England. It does concern me though that we may well be misapplying our resources in bringing industry and society into line on carbon limits, when those resources could better be used in designing defences against planetary climate change which may well be outside human cause or control.
With Piltdown Man, for example, there were several eminent detractors from the hypothesis of the missing link. However, their voices were drowned in the groundswell of excitement surrounding the topic. I hope that the same is not happening over climate change, with contrary voices being silenced and the scientific peer-review process under a large cloud. Further, the apparent inability of climate-change dissenters to get published in the leading scientific journals is a cause for concern. Robust research and intellectually rigorous, honest peer-review are essential components in the progress of science (and mankind) – without them we are really in trouble.
To mis-quote Clausewitz, science is war without politicians and the military.
We rapidly need solid, objective research, to determine the scientific significance of man-made carbon emissions in relation to the natural background climate change, otherwise we will be fiddling while the world burns.
© Phil Marks 2009. All rights reserved.
About the Author
Facts, stories, tales and opinions from an experienced professional. Extensive and varied international career from being a chef, to yacht charter and other enterprises. Trained in Physics and Oceanography, latterly a freelance consulting project manager in information systems, and available for interesting assignments anywhere in the world.
Visit my homepage for more info=>
http://www.havenplace.co.uk
Phil Marks
BSc, MSc, MBA, CITP
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